Chess tournaments can lead to ties, and if a single winner is desired, then one needs to resort to some tie-breaking device. In soccer matches, if an extension of the game does not break the tie, penalty kicks are used.
In the FIDE World Cup and some other chess tournaments, a so-called “Armageddon game” is used as a tie-breaker. In an Armageddon game, white gets five minutes, and black four minutes (compared to each 2.5 hours for 40 moves in a regular competition game). Unfair? Well… except that for black, a draw counts as a victory, while white has to win the game outright.
Somebody named Håkon Hapnes Strand on Quora suggested “Armageddon chess” as a metaphor for the Russia-Ukraine war.
I was reminded of this when I saw this long piece in Der Spiegel. A machine translation courtesy of DeepL Pro follows below. (I can hand-translate just fine but, alas, don’t have the time right now.)
Shabbat shalom
Experts speak of David-versus-Goliath scenario – and “the Russians are now David”.
A victory for the Russian forces seemed to be only a matter of time. But the Ukrainians are putting the squeeze on their overpowered opponent – with modern equipment and tactical finesse. But another factor is crucial.
By Oliver Imhof and Fritz Schaap
03/18/2022, 09:56 – from DER SPIEGEL 12/2022
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Snow falls on the E95 highway as a Russian convoy rolls toward the Kiev suburb of Browary on March 10. Close together, about 20 tanks drive along the four-lane highway. No infantry moves alongside the convoy, no one looks for potential ambushes. The sky is gray, the fields are dark as Vladimir Putin’s soldiers reach the village of Skybyn and fire begins.
Ukrainian artillery and anti-tank missile fire takes the Russians by surprise. The vehicles of the 6th Regiment of the 90th Armored Division pile up on the road, they are so close together that one projectile damages several of them at once. Chaos breaks out. More shells and rockets hit. Columns of smoke rise into the sky, the tank leaders who can still turn. Four tanks are destroyed, others manage to escape across the fields.
Videos like this are a testament to the amazing course of the war. And there are many such scenes of Ukrainian ambushes. Taken together, they paint a picture of a warring party that is actually vastly outnumbered, but which uses modern equipment, tactical finesse and courage to inflict damage on its supposedly superior opponent.
Destroyed and captured Russian tanks: more than 1000 vehicles lost
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Destroyed and captured Russian tanks: more than 1000 vehicles lost Photo by Irina Rybakova / PRESS SERVICE OF THE UKRAINIAN GROUND FORCES / REUTERS
It is the big surprise in the war against Ukraine: even three weeks after the first attacks, President Volodymyr Selenskyi’s forces are successfully holding out against the Russian army in many places in the country. Few Western observers foresaw the weakness of the Kremlin army. At first, a Putin victory seemed only a matter of time. But a rethink soon set in in Western military circles. A protracted battle of attrition, fatal for Moscow, and even a victory for the attacked are now considered a conceivable scenario. How did the Ukrainians manage these initial successes? And what is their strategy for the coming weeks?
Fierce resistance
One of Kiev’s key strategists is General Valery Salushny, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces. He has championed respectful treatment of his own soldiers since before the war and has pushed for renewal and rejuvenation of the force. And he made sure early on to train his people to use drones and anti-tank missiles. His troops can act tactically intelligent, and they benefit from arms supplies from the West. All of this is now helping him fight Putin’s army, which suffers from massive logistical problems and low morale.
“Are the Ukrainians capable of driving out the Russians? No. Are they capable of winning the war? Yes.”
Michael Kofman, military expert
About one-third of Ukraine’s 900,000 reservists have been on combat duty in the east of the country at times through rotations since 2014. The soldiers are more experienced than many of their opponents. “Russia is facing a combination of well-trained Ukrainian military, experienced reservists and untrained civilians who far outnumber them,” says John Spencer, director of Urban Warfare Studies at the New York-based think tank Madison Policy Forum and one of the most renowned experts on urban warfare. Spencer speaks of a David versus Goliath scenario in the Ukraine war. This, he says, has been reversed. “The Russians are now David.”
Ukrainian troops are pursuing a dual strategy. On the one hand, they are retreating to urban areas because cities are easier to defend, and attempts to conquer them are costly to the enemy. On the other hand, they rely on numerous raids in the countryside. Especially in the north, where there is a lot of forested, muddy terrain where it is difficult for vehicles to move off the roads, the Ukrainians attack the enemy: Small, mobile groups there regularly inflict heavy losses on Russian convoys with anti-tank weapons.
Space vs. time
“The Ukrainians are forcing Russian forces into a fight where mass or a larger cohesive force does not provide an advantage,” analyzes Michael Kofman, the head of the Russia Division of the Center for Naval Analyses, a U.S. Navy research facility. The Russians wanted to advance quickly, and the attacked skillfully took advantage of the urban terrain.
Another advantage is that Selenskyi’s troops use systems similar to those of the Russians, at least for smaller weapons. Their mobile units can therefore provide themselves with supplies using weapons and ammunition captured from the enemy. The Ukrainians also realized quite early on that Putin’s officers have problems with their logistics. “So they focus on disrupting them, which compounds Russia’s problems,” says Ed Arnold, a military expert at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).
Coming to the Ukrainians’ rescue is the weather: Russian military leaders apparently did not adequately consider weather and ground conditions in their planning, and were caught off guard by the early start of spring in some parts of the country. “Mud,” Spencer says, “can bring an entire army to a standstill.”
Barricades in Odessa: Playing for time to pressure Putin
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Barricades in Odessa: Playing for time to pressure Putin Photo by BULENT KILIC / AFP
Even air supremacy remains elusive for Russian forces. Ukrainian threats and jets continue to inflict losses on Russian forces. They are destroying the modern air defense systems such as Tor-M or Pantsir S-1, which the Russian military uses to protect its convoys.
According to the British Rusi, the Russian forces have lost more than 1000 vehicles so far also because of this. According to Western estimates, the losses among Putin’s troops are dramatic: 7,000 to 9,000 soldiers have fallen in just three weeks. In addition, according to the U.S. government, 14,000 to 21,000 soldiers have been injured. According to British intelligence, most of the Russian army has become bogged down. The number of Ukrainian soldiers killed is estimated by the British at 3,000. Whereby much less is known about Ukrainian losses and troop strengths than about Russian ones. In the information war, the Ukrainians seem to have gained the upper hand.
But more than their tactical approach, the implementation of their operations amazes international observers. “I was surprised at how well they fight,” says Rusi expert Arnold.
Both countries have been working for years to renew their armies. But unlike the Russians, who apparently relied too much on high-tech equipment, the Ukrainians have focused on tactical training of their troops. With the help of Western military experts from the United Kingdom and the United States, for example, soldiers were trained on weapons and trained to defend cities.
Barricade of sandbags in Odessa
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Barricade of sandbags in Odessa Photo: Iryna Nazarchuk / REUTERS
Ukraine’s 2016 military reform program focused on essentials given the poor starting point of the armed forces. Strategists and trainers took care of modernizing the force, redefining issues such as command, control and military planning, and professionalizing medical care and logistics. And they made a point of allowing their units to act on their own initiative. This is precisely what now makes their armed forces strikingly different from the strictly hierarchical Russian military apparatus.
“Heroes can be more important in war than generals.”
John Spencer, military expert
Moreover, the officers of the Ukrainian high command made it unmistakably clear to their Western advisors what was causing them sleepless nights: the threat of a large-scale Russian invasion. For this scenario, they wanted to acquire and train the necessary defensive capabilities in time.
However, for many military strategists, all this is not the main factor behind Ukrainian successes. “It’s their will to fight,” says Iraq veteran Spencer of the Madison Policy Forum. “Training, weapons, technology – none of that matters if the soldiers aren’t willing to fight and take risks.” The Ukrainians’ motivation, he says, is extraordinary. “Because they are fighting for their country, for their families, who could be just an hour away. That changes the dynamics of what a military is capable of doing. The Russians don’t have that.”
A contribution to morale that is hard to overestimate is made by the commander-in-chief of Ukrainian troops, President Selenskyj, he said. “A lot can be attributed to him,” Spencer said. His speeches are an important part of Ukrainian successes, he said. “Heroes can be more important in war than generals.”
Help from the West
That’s because it’s also due in good part to his appearances that 17,000 surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles have been delivered to Ukraine so far, as well as protective equipment, machine guns and sniper rifles, according to Rusi expert Arnold. Soon, modern S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems are also to be added.
“If the West continues to supply weapons systems on this scale, Ukrainian forces will pose a serious threat to Russian troops,” Arnold says. Additionally, Ukrainian forces are supported by hundreds of thousands of volunteers.
Civilians training at the gun: serious threat to Russian troops
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Civilians training at the gun: serious threat to Russian troops Photo by ALEXANDROS AVRAMIDIS / REUTERS
Still, the military threat remains formidable. Casualties in the south of the country are high, largely likely because Ukrainian forces are currently focused on defending their capital. By successfully counterattacking, they have so far delayed Putin’s army from closing its siege ring around Kiev.
But the Ukrainians probably have to reckon with the fact that they will not be able to prevent an encirclement of the city in the long term. Their goal, therefore, seems to be to buy time – so that they can bring more material to Kiev: more water, more food, more weapons and ammunition needed during a siege.
The defense of Kiev
“The Ukrainians are prepared,” said Spencer, an Iraq veteran, “I don’t think the Russians are prepared for the fight that awaits them.” According to Ukrainian figures, which cannot be verified, there are 30,000 fighters in Kiev. “If that is true, the Russians would need about 150,000 troops to take the city.”
More and more Western observers now believe that the Ukrainians could successfully defend their capital in the event of a Russian advance. In addition, says Justin Bronk, a military expert at Rusi, there are freshly mobilized formations in western Ukraine, volunteers and a large quantity of modern weapons supplied from the West. These troops, Bronk believes, would rush to the city’s aid in a siege and try to break through the besiegers’ supply lines.
In the southern city of Mykolaiv, Ukrainian formations also appear to be trying to create a stalemate and buy time. For more than a week, they have been holding up a major Russian advance westward there toward the strategically important port city of Odessa. The goal, apparently, is to create a stalemate. And thus put further pressure on Putin, who desperately needs victories.
“Ukraine’s main game is playing for time,” Kofman says. “Trying to do anything else would waste a lot of military potential.” Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy’s Russia expert is comparatively optimistic about the chances of President Selenskyj and his troops. “Are they able to drive Russian forces out of Ukraine? No. Are they in a position to win the war? Yes.”
Spin, strangeness, and charm 
This is the most astonishing part: “Russian military leaders apparently did not adequately consider weather and ground conditions in their planning, and were caught off guard by the early start of spring in some parts of the country.”