Ukrainian masterstroke of psych warfare; selected background reading; a few observations

So much news, so little time. Just a few selections:

(a) A masterpiece of nonviolent psychological warfare: https://althouse.blogspot.com/2022/03/ukraine-has-invited-russian-women-to.html

“Ukraine has invited Russian women to come to Kyiv and collect their sons, many of whom appear to be inexperienced and frightened teenage conscripts.”

In a field surrounded by the people he had been sent to fight, a young Russian prisoner of war hungrily gulped down the tea and bread they offered him. A Ukrainian woman calmed him, telling the soldier not to worry. Using her phone, she made a video call to his mother. As soon as his mother appeared on the screen, he burst into tears.

“Everything is OK,” his female captor said, while others stroked his back. “Natasha, God be with you. We will call you later. He is alive and healthy.”

(b) could the Ukraine invasion paradoxically end up saving Taiwan?

[…] The world has been able to see the Ukrainian conflict in real-time because every major global media organisation is broadcasting scenes of terrified civilians, as well as the sheer bravery of Ukraine’s people as they resist invasion. One of the consequences of Beijing’s crackdown on foreign media in mainland China and Hong Kong is that a range of western media now operates from Taipei. Ten years ago, Taiwan’s capital was an afterthought for international media. Now it is a global hub for coverage of China. Any assault on Taipei would receive massive coverage. Russia cares little about global PR. China, despite its increasing assertiveness, is still keen to promote its image as a peaceful power that seeks economic partnership. Footage of terrified civilians hiding in the Taipei metro would hardly burnish that image. The brutality evident in the streets of Ukraine may have given Taiwan a breathing space.

(c) leaked recordings of radio transmissions (in cleartext?!?) paint a picture of severe logistics problems (units without fuel, food) and of unmotivated, underprepared troops panicking under fire. [Or is this Russian maskirovka to make the Ukrainians underestimate them?]

(d) Some more background reading:

• oligarchs turning on Russia’s new Tsar
• Michael Schellenberger at Bari Weiss’s substack: the West’s green delusions empowered Putin
• Allister Heath in the Daily Telegraph: the West is clinging to the delusion that its safety can be bought cheaply
• Matt Taibbi: Putin the Apostate

• an interesting analysis on Quora. The author (from India) does not expect Ukraine to weather the storm, but sees three main winners and three main losers. Winners:
  • China (which will hold Russia by the short and curlies)
  • USA (its “hard power” gets a new lease on life
  • France (will emerge as the dominant power in a revitalized EU)
• losers:
  • Russia (will be almost a Chinese client state)
  • Germany
  • India (historically dependent on Soviet, now Russian, military hardware)
• former UK ambassador to Moscow: Putin’s nightmare becoming reality
• According to Der Spiegel (in German), Winnie the Flu asked Putin to delay his planned invasion until after the end of the Olympic Winter Games in Beijing
• not-quite-Nietzsche’s Umwertung aller Werte (transvaluation of all values): German Green politician now criticizing rearmament for… not going far enough (if I understood Der Spiegel correctly)

(e) A few observations from where I’m watching. (I’ve never been to Ukraine but there are of course significant 1st-generation Russian and Ukrainian immigrant communities here.)

• Current temperatures are just below freezing. Is Ukraine playing for time until the rasputitsa sets in, and tanks, APCs, and truck will be mired down in the mud? (Except for hardened roads which then become shooting alleys.)
• an endgame that I’m not sure anyone has considered: Putin has already conquered about half of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. He may just keep going past Odessa up to the Romanian border, thus make Ukraine land-locked and adding a few Black Sea ports to his own empire. That alone he probably could sell as a “victory” for domestic consumption. That is, unless Erdogan locks the Dardanelles to shipping…

(f) I just see John Anderson AO just posted an interview with Victor Davis Hanson on the Ukraine crisis and more. It’s well over an hour, but sure to be worthwhile. Here it is embedded: