A helicopter with the Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and its Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on board apparently crashed, and after initial reports that he was fine, the state mouthpiece media are now reporting on extensive searches in the area of the crash being carried out.
Lazar Berman, in the Times of Israel, speculates on the succession struggle this would unleash.
It is too early to know the fate of Iran’s president and foreign minister after their helicopter crashed in northwestern Iran Sunday, but initial signs don’t look especially promising.An Iranian official told Reuters that while authorities are “still hopeful,” the information coming from the crash site is “very concerning.”
The lives of President Ebrahim Raisi, along with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, are “at risk,” the official added.
Though the deaths of two senior Iranian officials would be a dramatic development at a time when multiple conflicts are raging in the region, it likely would not affect the course of those fights significantly, with decisions over foreign policy and war under the purview of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
At the same time, however, the sudden loss of Iran’s president would create a power vacuum that senior figures would start maneuvering to take advantage of.
According to Article 131 of Iran’s constitution, in the case of the president’s death, the first deputy temporarily assumes the presidency. Mohammad Mokhber, a Khamenei loyalist, currently fills that role.
Elections must be held within fifty days.
[…] more importantly, Raisi[was]the leading candidate to replace Khamenei. He is immensely experienced — a cleric, ex-chief justice and former head of a massive foundation, in addition to being president.
“To have him off the field or incapacitated, dead, what have you, is a real shock for the politics of the system,” said Brodsky.
While overshadowed by Raisi, the potential loss of Amir-Abdollahian could also be significant, as he has been an extremely effective foreign minister, overseeing successful reconciliation with Saudi Arabia and navigating a series of difficult crises, including with powerful neighbor Pakistan.
Though Iran’s broad foreign policy won’t change, having to deal with unexpected political upheaval is expected to take attention away from the multi-front fight against Israel.
“If he did die or he was incapacitated, then the country could be a little more self-engaged, wrapped up in internal politics, as it sorts out the election for the next president,” noted Michael Makovsky, CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
And then he discusses a story I was entirely unaware of
The regime also risks looking weak after a series of setbacks.
Tehran has been displaying weakness for months. On January 3, Islamic State terrorists killed at least 84 people in two explosions near the grave of General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, as they marked the fourth anniversary of his death in a US drone strike in Iraq four years earlier.
The previous month, Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni terrorist group, killed 11 Iranian police officers
Iran, desperate to show some muscle, launched missiles into Pakistan, saying it was targeting Jaish al-Adl. But nuclear-armed Pakistan wouldn’t back down, hitting back with missiles and fighter jets within Iran — the first bombing attack on Iranian soil since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.
Its bluff called, Iran agreed to de-escalate.
UPDATE: bodies found after long search near the Azerbaijan border. The Times of Israel has obits for both: Ebrahim Raisi, The Butcher of Teheran and Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, has appointed Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as acting president, pending “elections”.
Shay Katiri at Middle East Forum speculates on what will come next.
Spin, strangeness, and charm 