COVID19 update, April 13, 2020: Italy and Israel grappling with exit strategies

(1) Italy, which has seen mortality well past the peak and on a downward trend (on a moving average) since the beginning of the month, and where new cases are lowest since March 13, is starting to grapple with “the day after”. As reported earlier, both Austria and Denmark are starting the road back to normal on April 15, with Norway to follow suit on April 20. Spain has started some normalization measures today.

(2) Israel too seeks to emerge from its “induced economic coma”. [Not all sectors have been idled: in fact, transportation infrastructure works have been carried out ahead of schedule as they were minimally disruptive now.] COVID19 cases have crossed the five-digit threshold here and are still increasing, but this is nearly compensated by an upswing in the number of recoveries, leading to an apparent stabilization in the number of active cases. Sure, we’re not out of the woods yet, as deaths have now grown into triple digits, but according to deputy director general of the health ministry, Itamar Grotto:

“I think we can say that we’ve pretty much succeeded in the stage of stopping the spread” of the coronavirus. Speaking to Ynet, he said that although there could be unexpected results from the outbreak in Bnei Brak and some other [c]hare[i]di communities, which would only be seen in the next few days, “It can be said that we’re in a relatively stable situation, and we’re in the stopping phase. Now, we need to see how we get out of this.” 

A group of captains of industry and business published an open letter, calling to start reopening things after Passover, “or face economic collapse”. Well, according to Haaretz (h/t Mrs. Arbel; I will deviate from my usual policy of not sending links there) these are the recommendations of the National Security Council, in four phases:

Phase 1: could begin as early as Thursday. In a nutshell: 

  • hi-tech and finance sectors reopen, as distance compliance etc. easier to assure there.
  • Government offices, currently down to essential staff, are ramped up to 50% staffing again
  • Preschools and special education are reopened. (Preschoolers are least in danger from the virus.)
  • It is being considered to permit preparation of small groups of HS seniors for their Bagrut (matriculation) exams
  • Public transportation, currently running on a severely curtailed schedule, to be partially restored again

Phase 2: two weeks later

  • Reopen retail stores other than large shopping centers
  • Elementary schools reopen

Phase 3: two more weeks later

  • Reopen remaining stores
  • Reopening cafes, restaurants, and hotels with social distancing and hygiene restrictions 
  • Junior high and high schools reopen. Strict hygiene and social distancing required
  • Universities and other postsecondary education will continue online teaching until the end of the school year, as they have already adapted to this
  • large, crowded events will still be prohibited

Phase 4: only when pandemic is under full control

  • Leisure and entertainment industries back in operation
  • Flights resume
  • Anyone over 60 and at-risk populations still under lockdown

One main worry expressed is whether, if a flare-up occurs, the public will abide temporary back-tracking.

Some might wonder if gregarious and notoriously “in your space, in your face” Israelis will adjust to a new normal of keeping at two arms’ length and no touching, hugging, backslapping, kissing,…

UPDATE: welcome, Instapundit readers!