Looking around, pre-Rosh HaShana edition: Russia-Ukraine, USA, Iran

(A) Looks like Vlad Puttanesca is “taking more direct control of the war” and is now organizing a shamferendum (sic) in Donetsk and Luhansk on these “independent republics” joining the Russian Federation.

Also, that the “partial mobilization” is actually causing more vocal opposition than the war itself.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/24/russias-mobilisation-will-make-putins-problems-worse/ [cached copy: pending]

[quote]Most Russians […] may have prejudices with which the Kremlin’s propaganda resonates, but they are passive not active supporters.

And until now the Kremlin has done everything in its power to keep it that way. The structure of sociopolitical life in Russia is such that it actively and deliberately hinders political agency, both for the Kremlin as well as against. This is why the police carted off pro-war advocates during Wednesday’s anti-mobilisation protests as well as those against the draft. It is why the Kremlin busses in apparatchiks for rallies, rather than genuine supporters. And it is why the government, up until now, has been luring contractors to war with salaries up to seven times the local average rather than the promise of a civilisational crusade.

In a poll taken shortly before Putin’s draft announcement, 80 per cent of Russians opposed mobilisation, with those who will be drafted the softest core. Those who can are now fleeing, leading to steep price rises for flights out of Russia and long queues at the borders. For those without the means to run, it is unclear to what extent, if they weren’t already attracted by incredible salaries to slay ostensible Nazis, they will be effective or willing fighters.

This is why the decision to mobilise, in temporarily resolving an intra-elite threat, is certainly no silver bullet to the Russian army’s failures.

By contrast, it will likely decrease morale yet further, since military contractors, many of whom were said to be despondent and preparing to leave the army to cash in their cheques, now have to stay at the front indefinitely.

Forced mobilisation will also aggravate existing class and racial tensions within and beyond the army, as the rich can afford to leave or buy their way out of the draft. It will also fail to deal with the underpreparedness of Russian soldiers, especially since there is already evidence that the promised training to new recruits will not actually be delivered.

Finally, the way the mobilisation process is organised, granting governors considerable powers, will only exacerbate the morale-destroying corruption that has undermined the modernisation of the Russian army. [/quote]

All in the service of staving off the inevitable debacle. Hardcore nationalists have turned against Putin (not out of concern for Ukraine, but because he’s made a pig’s breakfast of the war) and now he has to appease them somehow — or risk being shunted aside as too soft.


[cached copy: https://archive.ph/hB3RD]

The Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine basically reserves the right to use nukes in the event of an attack on Russian Federation territory. By incorporating Donetsk and Luhansk into the RF following the “decision of the people” (10-20% turnout, mostly coerced), he basically subjects Kiev to nuclear blackmail concerning these regions.

Ukraine has about a month, give or take, for more ground operations before the fall rasputitza (freely: mud season) will pin down both sides. I

(B) Insty, in his weekly NYPost op-ed, asks the same question I have been asking:


(C) Meanwhile, major protests are going on in Iran, with recently a general killed in a street battle (!)


[cached copy: https://archive.ph/lwHJf ]

Count on the US to leave the protestors hanging dry when they need help the most, as BHOzo did in 2011.

Gad Saad will have Iranian refugee Patrick Bet-David on later: likely to be a good interview

It for sure has been quite the Jewish calendar year, and another “interesting” year is bound to follow. Out with the old year and its curses — in with the new year and its blessings.

I wish all, Jewish and non-Jewish readers alike,


A good, sweet, and blessed New Year and good health and all goodness


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