Electoral College 2012: It’s down to Buckeyes again

This morning Rasmussen had Romney leading the Whiner-in-Chief by 4 points (and in fact by 5 points in the swing states). But that’s of course the popular vote: let’s look at Rasmussen’s electoral college scoreboard.
 Rasmussen defines “safe” as a 20+ point lead, “likely” as a 10+ point lead, and “lean” as a 5+ point lead. By these criteria, Romney has 167 safe, 21 likely, and 47 leaners for a total of 235, while BHOzo has 172 safe, 38 likely, and 27 leaning seats for a total of 236.

Seven states remain tossups for a total of 66 seats:

Ohio: 18 seats (0 barely leads 49-48)
Virginia: 13 seats (Romney leads 50-47)
Wisconsin: 10 seats (0bama leads 50-48)
Colorady: 9 seats(Romney leads 50-46)
Iowa: 6 seats (dead heat 48-48)
Nevada: 6 seats (0bama leads 50-47)
New Hampshire: 4 seats (0bama barely leads 50-49)
If we place the 3% or more leads in each candidate’s column, Romney gets VA and CO, putting him at 257, while 0bama gets NV, putting him at 242. If we assume he also gets the 10 seats of WI (despite Paul Ryan being from WI), this puts BHOzo at 252, leaving 28 seats in the “super tossups” OH (18), IA (6), and NH (4).
This means, unless any upsets occur above… whoever gets OHIO wins. And Ann Althouse has Video: Romney wins CBS Focus Group in Ohio. She snarks: “The silent sadness of the CBS newswoman’s face at 0:29… hilarious. So funny that these newsfolk don’t activate actorly skills to project the appearance of professionalism and neutrality.”
We’re in the home stretch now. A preference cascade may be underway (see Insty’s USA Today column on the subject) even in one of the D’s most loyal voting blocs. But… Let’s not get cocky. Keep our eyes on the ball, get out the vote, and end the rule of Chicago-On-The-Potomac!

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