[This was published on January 17 but somehow slipped under my radar. Much of it is still very timely. And of course, the author of “Ender’s Game” sure knows how to wield a pen.]
Suddenly a charismatic 50-year-old legislator from Massachusetts is propelled to national prominence because he wins, as a Republican, the seat long held by Ted Kennedy.
After Kennedy died, this outcome seemed about as likely as the moon suddenly turning spongy and bouncy.[…]
This is a year of anger and resentment. After Bill Clinton’s presidency, the Democrats thought that his formula of constant lying to the American people was one they could follow with impunity.
Since the media, committed to affirmative action and determined to support the election of the first black President, never held Obama to the same standard of investigation that they applied to every other candidate hitherto — let alone the savage borking that they gave to Sarah Palin — Democrats thought they were getting away with it.
But for the past year, the American people have seen a president of unbelievable arrogance and run-of-the-mill incompetence make attempt after attempt to govern from the extreme Left — after pretending to be a centrist who wanted to unite people.[…]
Even as human-caused global warming was being steadily revealed as a fraud perpetrated by politically-motivated pseudo-scientists and out-and-out politicians with an anti-American, anti-Western agenda, Obama’s Environmental Protection Agency is grabbing for the power to bypass Congress and destroy the American economy in the name of a phenomenon that simply is not happening, and not terribly dangerous even if it were.
More importantly, Obama obviously wanted to break his ironclad promise to win in Afghanistan — only when it became clear that even some in his own party would rebel at a premature withdrawal did he commit, halfheartedly and with his fingers crossed, to give the military the troops they needed.
And his ignorance and foolishness and arrogance in foreign relations make George W. Bush look like the clever, strong President that he actually was, once you penetrated the slanders of the Leftist media.
It comes down to the fact that every promise Obama made has been broken. His anti-recession measures have failed, as any sensible person knew they would. He is not even remotely what he pretended to be.
That matters to the voters.
Oh, not to the diehard Left. In fact, they were absolutely counting on Obama to be as big a liar as Clinton — even bigger, in fact, because after Clinton was repudiated by the election of a solidly Republican Congress in 1994 he really did move to the center.
But Obama was not elected by the extreme Left. However much the elitists of the Left (who always govern in the name of people they would be disgusted to dine with) might feel themselves entitled to rule America, they only win elections nationwide and take control of the federal government when they can fool people into thinking they are not what they are.
In many ways, [Scott Brown]’s Mitt Romney — without the crippling burden of being Mormon. [OSC is an LDS himself — F2]
Right now Republicans think that [the collapse of 0bamacare — F2] will be all to their good, but they’re wrong. Remember that the healthcare reform bill was popular at first, before anybody knew what was in it, because the American people really detest the unfairness of the present system in which money is the prime method of triage.[Don’t forget: OSC is a registered Democrat — F2]
As soon as this bill goes away — and you can be sure that the Democrats in Congress will start calling it “the Obama healthcare bill” — then the people can go back to hating the present system.
This is a dream outcome for Democrats in Congress. Democrats who seek reelection in mixed districts and states can prove they tried to enact a popular idea, but blame Obama for the fact that the bill failed. (Democrats in safe districts will, of course, claim the bill for themselves.)
If you think Democrats in Congress will be loyal to Obama, think again. They used him as their tool to coattail their way into solid control of both houses of Congress; they will happily use him as their foil to try to retain as much of that control as possible.
A humbled Obama might well be reelectable in 2012. Especially if the Republicans pull a 1964 and pick a nominee who is a “true conservative” instead of one who can be elected nationally. [F2: I agree, for some definitions of “true conservative” but not for others.]
So if Brown really is what he seems to be — if we don’t find out that he has a mistress or cheated on his taxes or took bribes (why anyone in Massachusetts would bother to bribe a Republican is beyond imagining) — and if he can actually prove himself capable, not just of putting up a solid center-right voting record in the Senate, but of working with other senators of both parties — he may very well be a shoo-in in 2016.
But don’t for a moment discount the possibility that the Republican Party might turn to him in 2012. Huckabee is unelectable — he would be a joke as a candidate; the attacks of the media on Palin have been savage, hypocritical, sexist, and unfair, but the fact remains that she is now widely perceived as an extremist.
Romney is still conceivable, but has those vulnerabilities (anti-immigrant, Mormon), but if you consider that he would almost certainly be tapped for a cabinet position, so his economic expertise would still be part of a Brown administration, it would make more sense to nominate Brown and have Romney campaign for him. (A Brown/Romney or Romney/Brown ticket would be unconstitutional — they come from the same state.)
Whatever happens, barring some disastrous revelation, Brown’s election to the U.S. Senate has changed everything in presidential politics.